Brains & Climate

This aphorism by Yogi Berra, the Baseball Hall of Fame philosopher, used to be a funny example of a tangled arrow of time. But now it means that, thanks to global warming and ocean acidification, our kids and grandkids cannot have the kind of future that we had; they can count on a future of high risk, both directly from climate change and from the regional collapse of civilization.

People take sensible precautions when the risk is high. Ask a roomful of people if they have fire insurance. Almost all will raise a hand. Ask how many have had a fire in the last ten years, and almost none will respond. Yet people pay for insurance because, should a fire happen, they could lose everything—and still have to pay off the mortgage.

But uncertainty is another matter. Those with money to loan will worry about ever getting it back, and so loan rates will soar.

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The insurance industry is one of the few major economic sectors that has fully realized the perils of inaction in combating climate change. Reinsurers, especially Swiss Re and Munich Re, employ staffs of scientists full time to analyze the problems and find solutions. However, the industry can’t do it alone. If Stern’s report is dismissed as a Cassandra like prophecy of doom, and no action is taken, not only will the industry be hard pressed to survive, but also the entire planet. Cite.